Volkswagen billig, men forsiktighet bør utøves

Vi ser på Volkswagen-aksjen som oversolgt og holder oss på Fair Value Estimate på EUR 210, men vi oppfordrer investorer til å være forsiktige og vente til noe av støvet legger seg.

Richard Hilgert 24.09.2015 | 8.33
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Analytikernotatet ble første gang publisert 23.9.2015 på Morningstar Select

Given that our Volkswagen enterprise value carve-out is substantially more aggressive than management's provision for faulty engine emission control software, we are maintaining our EUR 210 fair value estimate. No-moat Volkswagen announced on Tuesday that a faulty engine algorithm affects some 11 million vehicles worldwide. The company also said that "to cover the necessary service measures and other efforts to win back the trust of our customers," there would be a EUR 6.5 billion provision taken in the third quarter. While we were surprised by the global scope (this was not just a North American diesel engine issue), the amount of the charge that management has set aside is EUR 2.5 billion less than the EUR 9.0 billion we carved out of the enterprise value. The company warned that the amount of the provision may be "subject to revaluation." While we view the 5-star-rated shares as oversold, trading at roughly a 50% discount to our fair value estimate, we think long-term investors may want to use caution and wait for the dust to settle before taking advantage of the oversold condition.

The impact of the debacle on sell-side analysts' price targets and earnings per share estimates excluding special items has been relatively muted considering the nearly EUR 27 billion in market capitalization lost by Volkswagen shares during the past two days. Since the end of July when the company reported its second-quarter results, sell-side analysts' consensus price target, as measured for the preferred shares by Thomson ONE, has declined to EUR 200 today from EUR 258. Even so, consensus EPS has declined to EUR 21.35, down just EUR 2.41 from EUR 23.76 over the same time frame. For 2016, the consensus EPS estimate has declined by only EUR 2.09 to EUR 24.26. In our opinion, it's possible that the consensus price target and EPS estimates could decline further, as out of 31 2015 EPS estimates posted, only eight have been updated since news of the emissions scandal broke.

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Om forfatteren

Richard Hilgert  Richard Hilgert is a securities analyst on the Industrials Team.

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