Statoils Moat kuttet fra "Narrow" til ingen

Vi mener nå at Statoil ikke lenger fortjener en smal økonomisk vollgrav, siden selskapet har fallende oljevolum, høyere produksjonskostnader og økte investinger har medført fallende avkastning. 

Allen Good 15.10.2014 | 9:43

Merknad: Analysen ble publisert 14.10.2014, altså før det ble offentlig kjent at Helge Lund slutter som CEO i Statoil (15.10.2014).

We no longer think Statoil earns a narrow economic moat, as declining oil volumes, higher production costs, and increasing investment have combined to lower returns. Despite plans to lower capital spending and delay higher cost and lower return projects, we do not think Statoil will be able to consistently earn excess returns without higher oil prices.

Previously, Statoil earned a narrow moat thanks to its dominant position on the NCS. This focus on one area allowed the firm to gain in-depth knowledge of the region relative to its rivals while building out significant infrastructure that lowered the capital cost of incremental production. We think these advantages largely remain intact. However, the resource potential of the NCS is diminishing and Statoil’s production from the region has been in decline for several years. During this time, earnings still grew thanks to higher oil prices, offsetting the concurrent increase in capital spending and maintaining returns. Going forward, however, we expect spending to remain elevated relative to historical levels and costs to rise. Against the backdrop of lower oil prices, we then expect returns to fall. Given that Statoil can no longer ensure excess returns with oil prices at $100/bbl, we think it no longer earns a moat.

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Om forfatteren

Allen Good

Allen Good  er senior aksjeanalytiker hos Morningstar, og han dekker olje- og gassindustriene. 

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