Redusert FVE i Telenor for å ta hensyn til VimpelCom

Narrow-moat Telenor rapporterte solide 3. kvartalstall, men dets eierskap på 33 % av VimpelCom gjør at vi forventer å redusere FVE ettersom vi har justert ned verdien av VimpelCom. 

Allan C. Nichols, CFA 29.10.2015 | 8.47
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Narrow-moat Telenor reported solid third-quarter results. However, as it owns 33% of VimpelCom, we expect to slightly reduce our fair value estimate to account for the recent reduction in our fair value estimate for VimpelCom, to $4 from $5.50 per ADR (based on renewed currency weakness in Russia and other countries in which it operates). This price is likely more in line with the value that Telenor can sell its stake for, as the company announced its plans to do earlier this month.

Telenor reported third-quarter revenue growth of 15%, versus our full-year estimate of 18.2%. However, we expect it to reach our projection in Norwegian krone terms, given currency gains, as the krone has been weak versus many currencies in countries where Telenor operates. Its biggest growth drivers were Myanmar, India and Bangladesh, where subscribers grew 2.3 million, 1 million, and 2.4 million in the quarter, respectively. This takes the total subscriber bases to 11.8 million, 40.9 million and 55.5 million, respectively. Myanmar has particularly shone: Virtually all of its subscribers have been added during the past year. We don't envision this growth rate continuing, but Telenor's scale is already sufficient for positive operating profit.

Additionally, after struggles in Pakistan resulting from government requirements to register all customers, this business is showing signs of improvement, as it added 1.7 million subscribers during the quarter. However, its base is still down from the year-ago period, at 33.2 million. Norway and Sweden seem to be improving, but Denmark remains a problem. We believe the company can meet its objective of 4%-6% annual revenue growth for several years.

Myanmar's improvement and cost control also allowed Telenor's EBITDA margin to reach 37.2% in the quarter and 35.2% for the nine-month period, versus our full-year projection of 34.7%. However, the fourth quarter historically has weaker margins, so we anticipate results near our estimates.

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Verdipapirer nevnt i artikkel

Navn på verdipapirPrisEndring (%)Morningstar Rating
Telenor ASA127,50 NOK0,79Rating

Om forfatteren

Allan C. Nichols, CFA  Allan C. Nichols, CFA, is a senior stock analyst and international investing specialist with Morningstar.

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