Ingen endring i Fair Value estimat for Telenor

Men prisen Telenor får for VimpelCom kan påvirke FVE av selskapet. 

Allan C. Nichols, CFA 06.10.2015 | 8.32
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On Monday, Telenor's new CEO Sigve Brekke put his first stamp on the company by announcing that the firm would exit its 33% ownership stake in VimpelCom. A couple of years ago, Telenor lost a battle to gain control over VimpelCom from Russian billionaire Mikhail Fridman. With the possibility of gaining control lost, along with the bad press from holding a Russian asset and the ongoing investigations into possible improper payments to gain licences in some former Soviet countries, Telenor's board and CEO have decided to exit their stake. We aren't thrilled with the timing, as VimpelCom's stock has been hurt recently due to Russia's weak economy and political moves. That said, we think Telenor's departure from this position will improve sentiment for the company, as leaving will remove these issues, and as VimpelCom is no longer much of a revenue growth driver. While we anticipate some write-downs on the asset, Telenor has already taken out more cash in the form of dividends than it invested in VimpelCom. We expect the sale will take time, and the amount received for the shares will determine its effect on our fair value estimate (p.t. 162 NOK). VimpelCom's stock is currently trading at just above $4 per ADR. This is below our fair value estimate of $5.50, which we used to value Telenor's stake when computing its fair value estimate. Assuming the sale of VimpelCom's stock takes place at around $4 per ADR, our Telenor fair value estimate would decline by about NOK 7 per ordinary share, or $1 per ADR. There is no change to our fair value estimate for VimpelCom, but the risk to minority shareholders may increase, as there will not be another large shareholder to temper Fridman. We make no change to our moat rating for either firm.

Analytikernotetet ble første gang publisert på Morningstar Select 5. oktober. 

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Verdipapirer nevnt i artikkel

Navn på verdipapirPrisEndring (%)Morningstar Rating
Telenor ASA128,20 NOK1,34Rating
VEON Ltd ADR23,43 USD-0,26

Om forfatteren

Allan C. Nichols, CFA  Allan C. Nichols, CFA, is a senior stock analyst and international investing specialist with Morningstar.

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