TeliaSonera bedre enn ventet

TeliaSonera rapporterte tredjekvartalsresultater som var noe bedre enn vi ventet, men vi opprettholder 'fair value' estimat og moat rating.

Allan C. Nichols, CFA 21.10.2015 | 11.23
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TeliaSonera reported third-quarter results that were slightly better than our expectations, but we retain our fair value estimate (50 SEK) and moat rating (Narrow). The firm reported revenue growth of 6.3%, including acquisitions and foreign exchange benefits, versus our full-year projection of 5.3%. We are pleased by improvements in its Swedish and European operations, but its Eurasian business is struggling more than we anticipated. This is a reversal from the past several years and helps to explain management's announcement that it is looking to exit Eurasia.

In Sweden, TeliaSonera's largest market, revenue increased by 1.5%, as continued growth in residential operations more than offset declines in the corporate segment. We think this is a sign of market stabilisation. As a result of the acquisition of Tele2's Norwegian business, the rest of Europe grew 6.5% in local-currency terms. Without this acquisition, revenue in the region would have declined in local terms. While the Baltic countries improved somewhat, we expect revenue in Europe to be mostly flat next year in local currency.

Eurasia has been the firm's growth driver for several years, so revenue growth of just 0.5%, including a small currency gain, is a concern. Kazakhstan, its largest operation in the region, saw revenue fall 9.8%, as new pricing and bundles stabilised the subscriber base but hurt revenue and profitability. Several other countries also saw significant revenue declines, which were offset by continued strong growth in Uzbekistan and Nepal. However, with new competitors entering Uzbekistan and strikes in Nepal, we don't view this growth as sustainable. We are also concerned about the potential sale price for these operations now that growth has deteriorated.

While TeliaSonera generated an EBITDA margin of 36% in the quarter, its EBITDA for the nine-month period is only 34.2%, slightly above our full-year projection of 34%. That said, with the stock's recent pullback, the shares are now undervalued.

Analysen opprinnelig publisert 20.10.2015 på Morningstar Select. 

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Verdipapirer nevnt i artikkel

Navn på verdipapirPrisEndring (%)Morningstar Rating
Telia Company AB25,65 SEK-0,97Rating

Om forfatteren

Allan C. Nichols, CFA  Allan C. Nichols, CFA, is a senior stock analyst and international investing specialist with Morningstar.

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