Reduserte oljeprisforventninger

Det er mange tegn til et brutalt marked på kort sikt, men oljeprisen er for lav til å tiltrekke nødvendige investeringer i sektoren, sier Morningstars Stephen Simko. 

Stephen Simko, CFA 15.09.2015 | 14:25
Although we continue to believe that crude oil prices are well below the levels required to encourage sufficient investment to meet demand beyond 2017, we are reducing our long-term oil price outlook by $5 per barrel, to $70 Brent and $64 West Texas Intermediate, to reflect bearish developments in recent quarters in the outlook for low-cost supply and industrywide cost deflation.

While $5 represents a relatively small adjustment to our long-term oil price assumption, we are also adjusting our near-term activity and pricing forecasts to reflect our belief that industry oversupply is making it very likely that crude markets will not approach any semblance of normalcy until 2017. Taken together, these changes have a meaningful impact on a handful of our energy sector fair value estimates, particularly for firms that currently employ large amounts of leverage. 

Two key developments underpin our decision to reduce our long-term pricing outlook. First, cost-advantaged resources have continued growing in recent quarters, thanks to ongoing productivity improvements across U.S. tight oil plays as well as sanctions relief that will result from the Iranian nuclear deal. Longer term, this makes it likely that low-cost oil will continue to crowd out more marginal projects that were being sanctioned before oil prices collapsed.

Second, our originally anticipated point of global supply and demand coming into balance has continued to get pushed further into the future throughout 2015. This in turn has led to a collapse in near-term investment that has increased the magnitude of cost deflation and considerably weakened the currencies of many commodity-exporting countries. The result is lowered break-even levels for both offshore and oil sands projects, which we expect will be the resources setting the industry's marginal cost once crude markets have rebalanced.

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Om forfatteren

Stephen Simko, CFA  Stephen Simko, CFA, is a senior stock analyst on the Technology Team.

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