Morningstars syn på kredittmarkedene

Den europeiske statsgjeldkrisen blusser opp igjen, noe som støtter vårt langsiktige syn for å favorisere amerikansk kreditt fremfor europeiske.

Dave Sekera, CFA 03.07.2012 | 9:19
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The European sovereign debt crisis flares anew, supporting our long-held investment thesis to favour corporate bonds of US issuers over European issuers 

  • We have a neutral view on credit spreads predicated on rising systemic risk emanating from Europe
  • Increasing sovereign risk drives downgrades in the European banking sector.
  • Long-term interest rates have hit new lows. 

Neutral View on Credit Spreads Predicated on Systemic Risk From Europe
Since we moved to a neutral view of corporate credit risk exposure on April 9, the average spread in both the Morningstar Corporate Bond Index and the Morningstar Eurobond Corporate Index has widened 27 basis points to +217 and +241, respectively. Although our credit analysts continue to forecast stable to slightly improving corporate earnings and credit fundamentals, we revised down our opinion from overweight as the sovereign debt and banking crisis in Europe appeared to be flaring back up again.

We believe a neutral stance in corporate bonds is warranted, and we will likely hold this view until we gain additional clarity into the EU's ability to manage Spain's financing requirements and impact on corporate risk due to the recessions in many European nations and the slowdown in emerging markets. If the situation in Europe deteriorates, the emerging markets descend into a hard landing, or growth in the United States dwindles, then the contagion from heightened credit risk will hurt the corporate bond markets, and spreads will widen across the board. However, if we gain additional visibility that these issues are alleviated, then we think corporate credit spreads will resume their tightening trend as stable corporate fundamentals and positive technicals provide greater demand for corporate bonds.

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Om forfatteren

Dave Sekera, CFA  Dave Sekera, CFA, is a senior securities analyst with Morningstar.

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