Volkswagen entydige på kriminelle hensikter i 'Diesel-Gate'

Åpenbar forakt for lovgivning innad i organisasjonen gjør at vi reduserer vårt fair value estimat fra EUR 210 til 190 for å ta hensyn til større påvirkning på merkevare og erstatningsbeløp.

Richard Hilgert 25.09.2015 | 14.56
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Utdrag av analytikernotat publisert 24.9.2015 på Morningstar Select.

Until now, the only formal statements on criminality in Volkswagen's "Diesel-gate" were allegations by the Environmental Protection Agency and the California Air Resources Board as well as the assumed-guilty-before-proven-innocent speculation coming from the press and automotive industry talking heads. However, no-moat-rated Volkswagen's latest press releases, including former CEO Martin Winterkorn's resignation statement and supervisory board statements, have caused us to increase the detrimental impact to VW's enterprise value from the diesel engine emissions scandal. These statements confirm that there was a flagrant disregard for the law within the organization. We are reducing our fair value estimate to EUR 190 from EUR 210.

Even after assuming harsher fines and penalties, as well as our assumptions for degradation of the brands, Volkswagen shares appear to us to be oversold. With a 5-star rating, the stock trades at roughly a 40% discount to our EUR 190 fair value estimate. Even so, under the current circumstances, Volkswagen stock is not for the faint of heart. Caution is warranted as the shares are likely to be volatile from heavy news flow hitting the markets on the likely myriad company announcements about management changes and the criminal investigation.

Our EUR 190 fair value estimate includes punitive fines and assumes consumer rebellion against the tainted brands, with the consequences potentially coming from all global markets where Volkswagen sells the illegally polluting diesels. We have more than doubled our original enterprise value carve-out to EUR 20 billion from EUR 9 billion. Our fair value estimate also assumes a negative impact on demand and pricing to account for brand degradation in what is sure to be a marketing nightmare for Volkswagen. We estimate year-over-year declines in 2015 and 2016 revenue (excluding financial services) of 2% and 15%, respectively. 


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Om forfatteren

Richard Hilgert  Richard Hilgert is a securities analyst on the Industrials Team.

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