We expect to reduce our fair value estimate by about 10%. There is no change to our narrow-moat rating.
The firm reported 2015 revenue of NOK 128.175 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 20.3% versus our projection of a gain of 18.2%. The biggest driver of the firm's strong revenue growth was its phenomenal success in Myanmar, whose revenue jumped from NOK 290 million ($34 million) to NOK 4,835 million in one year. Additionally, after just over one year of operation in Myanmar, it is generating an outstanding EBITDA margin of almost 40%. Telenor also saw strong subscriber growth of 16.2% in India, 10% in Bangladesh and 6.2% in Malaysia taking its respective bases to 42.6 million, 56.7 million and 12.1 million.
Unfortunately, much of the rest of the business saw subscriber losses and had revenue gains only due to currency movements. While some of these declines were caused by government regulations requiring registration of every SIM card holder, which meant those customers who didn't register were dropped, we think subscriber growth is becoming increasingly difficult. To make matters worse, competition is increasing, which is pressuring prices and margins. While Telenor reported an adjusted EBITDA margin of 34.5%, very close to our projection of 34.7%, management stated it expected competition to push margins down in 2016 to between 33% and 34% versus our prior expectation of additional increases. While we anticipate the firm can reduce its costs and improve its margins long term, we now think that growth will be from a lower base and the increase will be less than we projected. After our fair value estimate reduction, we believe the shares will be slightly undervalued.
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