VimpelCom rapporterte bedre 2014 resultater enn vi ventet

En økning i Fair Value estimatet er sannsynlig.

Allan C. Nichols, CFA 26.02.2015 | 9.51
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VimpelCom reported 2014 results that weren't hurt as badly by currency weakness as we expected. We will probably increase our fair value estimate, but there is no change to our moat rating. Revenue fell 13% year over year primarily due to weakness in several currencies versus the dollar, particularly the Russian rouble (down 72%) and the Ukrainian hryvnia (down 97%). We had expected these declines to have a greater impact than pushing Russia's revenue down 14% and Ukraine's down 29%. In total, we had projected revenue to drop 21.2% due to the currency movements. We think the firm benefited from some currency hedges, which could show up in a bigger hit in 2015. Regardless, we expect the weak currencies will continue to pressure VimpelCom's revenue in 2015, but maybe not as much as we previously thought. Excluding currency movements, VimpelCom's revenue declined only 3%, including 4% organic growth in Commonwealth of Independent States countries. Overall, VimpelCom's customer base continues to grow, increasing 2% during 2014 to 221.6 million. We expect additional subscriber growth in 2015.

In the fourth quarter, the Russian operation returned to organic revenue growth of 3%, its first increase in six quarters due to a 1% increase in its wireless customer base and 15% growth in its fixed-line business. In Italy, VimpelCom's second-largest market, revenue fell 9% from the year-ago period or 5% excluding the depreciation of the euro versus the dollar. This was a significant improvement over the past several years.

With the revenue decline less than we expected, the firm was able to hold on to a higher EBITDA margin, at 40.6% versus our estimate of 38.0%. We have expected VimpelCom to increase its EBITDA margin over time, but it may be able to outrun our projections. Despite VimpelCom's better results, we continue to believe there is significant macro risk in owning the stock; for investment exposure to Russia, we continue to prefer Mobile TeleSystems.

With Italy now separated from the rest of the business and management discussing VimpelCom's leverage with and without the Italian operation, we believe it could sell this business to 3 Italia sooner than we previously thought.

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Verdipapirer nevnt i artikkel

Navn på verdipapirPrisEndring (%)Morningstar Rating
Telenor ASA124,10 NOK1,97Rating
VEON Ltd ADR23,88 USD1,92

Om forfatteren

Allan C. Nichols, CFA  Allan C. Nichols, CFA, is a senior stock analyst and international investing specialist with Morningstar.

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