SCA leverer sterk topplinjevekst

Vi øker Fair Value estimatet til SEK 197 per aksje.

Todd Wenning 02.02.2015 | 10.46
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After reviewing Svenska Cellulosa's fourth-quarter and full year results, we are increasing our fair value estimate to SEK 197 per share primarily due to the time value of money. We're maintaining our no moat rating as we continue to expect it to be difficult for SCA to establish a brand-driven, narrow economic moat. Overall, we were pleased with SCA's 9% year-over-year organic sales growth in emerging markets and solid 3% growth in developed markets in the fourth quarter; however, group operating margins contracted, which speaks to the very competitive environments in which the company operates. The tissue segment, which accounted for 54% of group operating profit in 2014, posted 3% year-over-year organic sales growth in the fourth quarter while operating margins were down 80 basis points to 12.2%. Price and mix were flat in the fourth quarter while volume increased 3%. In response to rising dollar-linked input costs, SCA plans to increase prices on Away-from-Home and consumer tissue products in 2015, which we think may prove to be challenging given increased competition in developed markets. We were pleased to see 3% organic growth in the consumer tissue category after a few quarters of lackluster performance. Looking ahead through 2019, we expect the tissue segment to grow its top line about 4.5% annualized on average, supported by increasing emerging market demand, and for segment operating margins to average about 12%.

The personal care segment, which accounted for 28% of group operating profit in 2014, posted 3% organic sales growth in the fourth quarter and operating profit margins improved 20 basis points to 11.5% from the prior-year period. The top line was supported by 9% organic growth in emerging markets; developed market personal care sales were flat on a year-over-year basis. Our five-year outlook for this segment is broadly unchanged and we expect topline growth of 6% annualized on average with operating profit margins hovering around 11.5%.

Notatet ble opprinnelig publisert 30.1.2015 på Morningstar Select

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Verdipapirer nevnt i artikkel

Navn på verdipapirPrisEndring (%)Morningstar Rating
Svenska Cellulosa AB Class B155,45 SEK0,03

Om forfatteren

Todd Wenning

Todd Wenning  er aksjeanalytiker hos Morningstar.

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